The Rhino Report: October 2025

The October Job Market is Getting Spooky. Vacancies are falling, competition is rising, and graduates face a chilling outlook. But behind the scary headlines, green jobs and skills-based hiring are opening fresh doors. Find out where the real opportunities are hiding this month.

UK Job Vacancies Fall for 38th Consecutive Month

The UK labour market has hit a new record: job vacancies have now fallen for the 38th consecutive quarter, down by 10,000 to 728,000 between June and August 2025 (ONS). That means there are now 67,000 fewer vacancies than before the pandemic.

Healthcare and retail saw some of the steepest drops, with construction vacancies down nearly 25% year-on-year. For businesses, this means that recruitment is becoming increasingly competitive across various industries. For candidates, it’s worth exploring where opportunities still exist. Check out our guide on the most in-demand jobs for 2025.

What this means: Job seekers should target sectors that are still actively hiring, such as technology and healthcare, while employers must refine their job offers to stand out in a smaller pool of vacancies.

With supply outpacing demand, businesses that make swift hiring decisions are more likely to secure the best talent.

Unemployment and Job Competition

Unemployment in the UK has crept up to 4.7%, with 1.74 million people now out of work (ONS). That means there are now 2.3 people competing for every vacancy, compared to just 1.7 a year ago.

This cooling market gives employers more choice, but it also raises the stakes for candidates. Standing out requires tailoring applications, strengthening your CV, and utilising resources like our AI in job search guide.

What this means: Job seekers need to refine their applications and prioritise quality over quantity, while employers have a broader candidate pool but must be cautious not to delay decisions and lose talent.

Graduate Job Market in October

Graduates are finding this autumn’s job market particularly tough. Media headlines have suggested that AI is taking entry-level jobs, but experts say the real issue is the broader economy, not technology (Observer).

In fact, data show that graduate employment rates remain higher than those for non-graduates. The challenge is that competition per role has skyrocketed, with some employers receiving 140 applications for each job.

What this means: Graduates should prioritise persistence and networking, using AI carefully as a support tool rather than a replacement.

What Employers Want Now

Employers are increasingly turning to skills-based hiring. Research shows that 77% of UK employers use skills tests, with many dropping degree requirements for roles (Onrec).

At the same time, 61% of companies are using AI in their hiring processes, and most report an improvement in efficiency. For job seekers, this means showcasing technical and soft skills is now more important than simply listing qualifications. For businesses, it means adapting recruitment strategies to attract candidates who might not follow traditional career paths.

UK Pay Growth vs Inflation: What Workers Really Take Home

Pay packets are growing, but not as fast as inflation. Average regular pay rose 4.8% year-on-year; however, real pay growth, adjusted for inflation, was just 0.7% (ONS).

Public sector workers saw stronger growth at 5.6%, compared with 4.7% in the private sector. For many households, the reality is that wages are being stretched thin by rising costs.

Hybrid Work, Stress and Side Hustles: The Generational Divide

Hybrid working is now mainstream, with nearly 28% of working adults splitting their time between home and office (ONS).

Meanwhile, 21% of UK workers now hold multiple jobs or “side hustles,” rising to 42% among Gen Z (Business Money).

Green Jobs and Sustainability Careers

The green economy continues to expand. The UK had around 691,000 green jobs in 2023, up 35% since 2015, and demand keeps growing (ONS).

Young people are particularly enthusiastic, with 85% of 18–24-year-olds wanting to pursue green careers.

A Frightening Outlook or Just Market Shadows?

With vacancies down, unemployment up, and wages squeezed, it’s easy to think the UK is heading into a recruitment recession.

The latest REC Labour Market Tracker suggests many employers are pausing hiring, not cancelling it.

Final Thoughts

The October jobs market shows signs of strain, but also of resilience. Vacancies are down, unemployment is up, yet skills-based hiring and green careers are opening new doors.

Thank you for reading The Rhino Report. Stay tuned for next month’s edition, where we’ll continue to break down the numbers and provide insights you can use.